In the Asia Pacific region, the photovoltaic (PV) market is forecast to grow 39% Q/Q and 130% Y/Y in Q4?11. Q4’11 installations of much more than 2 GW of PV capacity are expected, which will considerably raise the region’s share of the global market place this year, according to the new Asia Pacific Main PV Markets Quarterly report released by NPD Solarbuzz today.
The region is poised to grow an additional 45% in 2012, as Asian governments introduce new installation targets. China’s National Energy Administration lately revised its official cumulative solar installation target up from ten GW to 15 GW for 2015, representing just one of the most recent examples. China is projected to account for 45% of regional demand in Q4’11 and is on course to surpass both the US and Japanese industry sizes in 2011.
Elsewhere, regional demand is becoming driven by national incentive programs in India, even though Japan is also growing rapidly ahead of its new FIT plan. Other emerging markets in the region such as Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia are projected to deliver a combined 700 MW of extra demand in 2012.
Non-residential ground mount systems are projected to account for 64% of the regional marketplace by Q4?12, up from just 16% in Q1?11. This share growth will come at the expense of the residential segment which falls from 58% in Q1?11 to just 20% by Q4?12.
Internal rates of return (IRRs) on PV systems in the four main markets will develop more than the next 4 quarters, ending 2012 at levels among ten% and 13%, as program prices drop quicker than incentive rates.